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COVID-19 coronavirus thread #7

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can'tstayaway

The genomic sequencing report has confirmed 95% of cases in Victoria since May 26 came from the Rydges Hotel leakage. 

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lozoodle
2 minutes ago, Julie3Girls said:

See, if the govt is going to add restrictions and rules, mandatory masks on public transport is one that makes sense. I could understand that.


But, no, we’ll increase restrictions on outdoor sports for kids, and stop yr12 having a formal after they have been spending 5 days a week together at school (and you can still have a wedding with 150 people?)

Exactly Its ridiculous and makes no sense. My daughter is in year 6 and is so upset at the prospect of no year 6 farewell. to us its not a big deal but to the kids its a huge event they look forward to for a long time. Given they spend all their days with these people anyway....

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born.a.girl
1 hour ago, Riotproof said:

I guess the problem is while cases are relatively high, the likelihood of death is also higher. Sad though it is to say that. 
 

An American friend of mine cannot believe how we respond to even the smallest increase. She’s just posted a thing that says more people have died in the US from Covid than Americans died in ww1. 

The US passed that benchmark weeks and weeks ago - something like 120K WW1, now they're up over $170k with Covid and going up by an average of 1,000 a day. 

Spain, less than double our population, had 5k - 6k cases a few days in a row. Their deaths are still low at the moment, but those figures are going to have pretty tragic consequences in a couple of weeks.

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JRA
10 minutes ago, lozoodle said:

I'm just confused by the timing of these new announcements, I'd love to know what fuelled them all given cases have been going downwards in recent days, not the contrary. If we still had numbers in the double figures then i'd be more understanding of the WHY.

 

I'm assuming that private school had something to do with the new rules coming out, its all i can think that makes the remotest bit of sense with these new school announcements coming through about some extra curricular things? 

 

But hey, let's keep the pokies open because money. 

From reading it is the 15 or so cases they cannot trace to anything/anyone. That normally means there are a lot out there that are not known.

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Julie3Girls
4 minutes ago, lozoodle said:

Exactly Its ridiculous and makes no sense. My daughter is in year 6 and is so upset at the prospect of no year 6 farewell. to us its not a big deal but to the kids its a huge event they look forward to for a long time. Given they spend all their days with these people anyway....

it’s a big deal to the kids, I know when my girls were at primary, the kids were very involved in planning, it was great to have that special night, especially when so many kids spread off to different high schools, as well as saying goodbye to teachers.
Hopefully they will ease off the restrictions before the end of the year, so the year6 can at least do something. And maybe the yr12s have their formals. 

The yr 12 graduations are a hit though .. they normally happen end of term3 when the kids officially finish school.  
 

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blimkybill
7 minutes ago, JRA said:

From reading it is the 15 or so cases they cannot trace to anything/anyone. That normally means there are a lot out there that are not known.

Only three new infections in nSW today! And one of those is a returned traveller. It's looking very good.

I am sad about the graduations and formals too, I wonder if that might possibly be reversed if things continue to go well. 

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dadwasathome
1 minute ago, Julie3Girls said:

The yr 12 graduations are a hit though .. they normally happen end of term3 when the kids officially finish school.  
 

I don't know what DS17's school is doing about a graduation. The formal was pushed back to term 4 ages ago.

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JRA
2 minutes ago, blimkybill said:

Only three new infections in nSW today! And one of those is a returned traveller. It's looking very good.

I am sad about the graduations and formals too, I wonder if that might possibly be reversed if things continue to go well. 

And one at this stage has no known source. So although the number is low, which is great, nearly every day there is one of unknown source

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lozoodle
15 minutes ago, Julie3Girls said:

it’s a big deal to the kids, I know when my girls were at primary, the kids were very involved in planning, it was great to have that special night, especially when so many kids spread off to different high schools, as well as saying goodbye to teachers.
Hopefully they will ease off the restrictions before the end of the year, so the year6 can at least do something. And maybe the yr12s have their formals. 

The yr 12 graduations are a hit though .. they normally happen end of term3 when the kids officially finish school.  
 

Absolutely! I still remember what a big deal my year 12 formal was, feel for the kids :(

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AnythingGoes

From today's age on the Victorian hotel quarantine inquiry: The Rydges hotel outbreak began with a family of four who had returned to Australia from overseas.  Department of Health epidemiologist Dr Charles Alpren said the Rydges hotel outbreak started with a family of four who tested positive in quarantine on May 9. On May 25, three members of staff were then diagnosed with COVID-19. By June, 17 staff members and people outside linked to them, like their families, contracted coronavirus. It all stemmed from the family of four, Dr Alpren said.

He went on to repeat the view expressed yesterday that almost all current cases of COVID-19 can be linked to the outbreak at the Rydges hotel on Swanston and the Stamford Plaza. Dr Alpren said of the 2109 samples since May 26 they've sequenced, 1196 were linked to the Rydges hotel and 96 were linked to the Stamford Plaza.  Dr Alpren said that new figures from the last month have also confirmed that almost 100 per cent of all current cases are linked to the hotel outbreaks. He said 99.2 per cent of cases they have recently sequenced, a little more than 3,000, are linked to Rydges and another 12 cases are linked to the Stamford Plaza.

So the majority of cases from Rydges - from this family of four - so most likely not from security guards having sex with guests (unless it was some kind of swinging family..).  And there is this inappropriate advice around transmission and PPE from the inquiry yesterday.  

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/two-hotels-source-of-second-wave-as-inappropriate-advice-to-guards-revealed-20200817-p55ml8.html

In training notes shown to the inquiry, and according to other leaked DHHS documents seen by The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, guards were told that masks and protective equipment were not necessary provided they maintained a 1.5-metre distance from returned travellers.

While the early stages of the second wave were beginning, the DHHS memos to security guards in May and June show guards and returned travellers were only required to wear a face mask "if tolerated".  "Effective hand hygiene is the single most important strategy in preventing infection," the DHHS documents advised.

Professor Grayson, the director of infectious diseases at Austin Health, also said parts of the federal government's training module that security guards completed were misleading and inaccurate. "It was the complete opposite of what we teach regarding PPE," he said.

One question read: "Everyone should be wearing a mask to prevent COVID-19, true or false?" If the participant answered "true", a pop-up box would say, "You did not select the correct response", the inquiry heard.

Seriously this makes me so angry - that we are probably in this situation in Victoria because of this bad advice - and then all the blame levelled at the security guards for 'doing the wrong thing' when they were amongst the most exposed people in the state at the time (with the most contact with potentially infected people) and not given the tools to do the job safely.

 

 

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Rubyroo

We are waiting for clarification on the NSW sporting rules - two of my kids play in a Sydney league, indoor non-contact sport (6 players per team on the court, up to 4 off the court).  They will be devastated if this is cancelled, as they have only played 3 matches of a shortened season, and have been essentially waiting all year for the chance to play.  It is all so confusing.

Also, weirdly, their high school reinstated assemblies yesterday! Will see if that lasts out the day

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Riotproof
20 minutes ago, lozoodle said:

Absolutely! I still remember what a big deal my year 12 formal was, feel for the kids :(

I feel for them too. There have been some awful comments on fb articles about it from some people though. 

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Julie3Girls

Assemblies were mentioned in the updated school rules - allowed but need to be 15 minutes or less and no external visitors

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Navy Blue

For anyone who has been tested: did others in your house self isolate as well? Did you still send your kids to school while awaiting your results?

The information sheet says other members of the household do not need to isolate but just wondering if you have/would. 

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Fifteenyears

I think the rules that have just been enacted in schools in NSW are sensible for times of community spread.  Especially with lots of lurking mystery cases.    They would have been overkill before things took off here after the crossroads, but they are OK for now.   I suspect today’s low cases are an artifact of there being half the number of tests we usually manage.    If these new restrictions, and masking help drive numbers back down to almost nothing, then there is a hope that next term the HSC can proceed without school shutdowns, and maybe the rites of passage for years six and 12 can be put back on the agenda, even if they are somewhat later than usual for year 12.

Although I agree.  Most of our spread had happened in churches, restaurants, and bars.  Almost none had been associated with sport, and none with kids’ sport.  Just a couple of cases at a single fitness gym very early in the Crossroads breakout when nobody was really being careful.    The girl who played interschool netball while positive - all members of the opposing school’s team tested negative and are still isolating.   So even though she played interschool sport it didn’t cross into another school (and won’t even if one of the girls in the opposition does test positive, because they were quick to act).

And very little spread seems to happen within schools too, when they are shut down quickly.   The current rule of thumb seems to be shut for one day while close contacts are tested.  If close contacts test negative, reopen school next day and just keep close contacts in iso.  If close contacts test positive, shut and iso the whole school for two weeks and look for and prevent further spread.   And this seems to work.

The mystery cases are a concern,  although they are quite localised - lots of doubling up of postcodes.  Testing in these post codes is deliberately wide.   The odds are that many of the cases are actually linked and have been ring fenced by contact tracing anyway.    Eg, the actual ‘link’ between the mystery and a known cluster never got symptoms so never got tested (or no longer tests positive) but was put into quarantine as a close contact anyway.

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Riotproof
8 minutes ago, Navy Blue said:

For anyone who has been tested: did others in your house self isolate as well? Did you still send your kids to school while awaiting your results?

The information sheet says other members of the household do not need to isolate but just wondering if you have/would. 

Assuming you are being tempted for symptoms not being a close contact of someone, the kids can go to School. Just be mindful of any symptoms appearing. 

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Lunafreya

And again I’m worried buses will be shut down between ACT and Canberra. Or there will restrictions like Vic and you can’t leave a certain area 

:( 

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Navy Blue

Yes, just being tested for cold symptoms and not been in contact with a suspected or confirmed case. Had a negative result. 

DS let slip at school so they called me in a panic. They said that children should be kept at home if a parent has been tested but I said they are well so there's no point them staying home 🤷‍♀️

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blimkybill
7 minutes ago, Navy Blue said:

Yes, just being tested for cold symptoms and not been in contact with a suspected or confirmed case. Had a negative result. 

DS let slip at school so they called me in a panic. They said that children should be kept at home if a parent has been tested but I said they are well so there's no point them staying home 🤷‍♀️

Yes you were correct. I just got tested and had the same advice. 

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YodaTheWrinkledOne
1 hour ago, Julie3Girls said:

Wow, I hadn’t seen today’s numbers ... this does NOT make sense.  The things they are targeting don’t even make sense ... the spread has mostly been through restaurants, pubs and clubs.  So they target school graduations and community sport.  
i think I am having a bad day ... I can’t imagine how the people in Melbourne must feel ... at least there is a reason for their restrictions, and they can see the benefits as the massive numbers are coming down thank goodness. 

restaurants, pubs and clubs make money, employ staff.

community sports events do not.

Call me a cynic, I don't mind.

50 minutes ago, AnythingGoes said:

From today's age on the Victorian hotel quarantine inquiry: The Rydges hotel outbreak began with a family of four who had returned to Australia from overseas.  Department of Health epidemiologist Dr Charles Alpren said the Rydges hotel outbreak started with a family of four who tested positive in quarantine on May 9. On May 25, three members of staff were then diagnosed with COVID-19. By June, 17 staff members and people outside linked to them, like their families, contracted coronavirus. It all stemmed from the family of four, Dr Alpren said.

He went on to repeat the view expressed yesterday that almost all current cases of COVID-19 can be linked to the outbreak at the Rydges hotel on Swanston and the Stamford Plaza. Dr Alpren said of the 2109 samples since May 26 they've sequenced, 1196 were linked to the Rydges hotel and 96 were linked to the Stamford Plaza.  Dr Alpren said that new figures from the last month have also confirmed that almost 100 per cent of all current cases are linked to the hotel outbreaks. He said 99.2 per cent of cases they have recently sequenced, a little more than 3,000, are linked to Rydges and another 12 cases are linked to the Stamford Plaza.

Maybe my maths is wrong or I am reading this the wrong way. "almost all current cases of COVID-19 can be linked to the outbreak at the Rydges hotel on Swanston and the Stamford Plaza" but 1196+96=1292 and then 1292/2109=61%. To me, that's not "almost all cases" I am confused ...

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tothebeach

The new restrictions on sport affect my son’s sport as their league is across Sydney.    With two community transmission cases in Sydney and pubs, clubs and churches allowed hundreds of people indoors, the ban on children’s sport seems disproportionate.  No child has gotten it in NSW playing a non-contact outdoor sport. 
Where do we start to consider the other side of the risk - reward ledger.  For things like children’s mental health and fitness which everyone seems happy enough to sacrifice. 

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purplekitty

 

2 hours ago, Riotproof said:


An American friend of mine cannot believe how we respond to even the smallest increase. She’s just posted a thing that says more people have died in the US from Covid than Americans died in ww1. 

Officially it is now around 170,000,WW1 was around 117,000 but experts believe the COVID number is underestimated because of the reporting and recording of the stats.Possibly almost double the deaths in WW1.

 

Just as Donald planned.

 

@Ruf~Feral~es I hope you can get to see your Dad,WA must be stricter than everywhere else if they refuse.Surely not.

While they are allowing exemptions for politicians, workers and business I can't see the fairness or the logic.

You can get permission on compassionate grounds to travel overseas in some States as well.

 

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RichardParker
58 minutes ago, Navy Blue said:

For anyone who has been tested: did others in your house self isolate as well? Did you still send your kids to school while awaiting your results?

The information sheet says other members of the household do not need to isolate but just wondering if you have/would. 

I was tested, and DH took the kids to school while I stayed home and awaited the result. I’m in Adelaide, though, and had had no contact with a known case.   I was really carefuL with hygiene in the house, and slept in the spare room, but still cuddled the kids.  
 

It’s tricky. If there was a high likelihood I had the virus, I’d prefer not to stay at home at all if possible- go stay in a caravan park cabin or something, rather than try to stay at home and worry about spreading it to family and further.  

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RichardParker
28 minutes ago, tothebeach said:

The new restrictions on sport affect my son’s sport as their league is across Sydney.    With two community transmission cases in Sydney and pubs, clubs and churches allowed hundreds of people indoors, the ban on children’s sport seems disproportionate.  No child has gotten it in NSW playing a non-contact outdoor sport. 
Where do we start to consider the other side of the risk - reward ledger.  For things like children’s mental health and fitness which everyone seems happy enough to sacrifice. 

Local activity and community sport seem like such an unfair thing to restrict, particularly if the activity is outdoors and there are other protective measures taken. 
 

I would hate to think that our young people are going to need to access mental health services when they would otherwise have been able to maintain their mental health through art, sport and community connection.  

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AnythingGoes
22 minutes ago, YodaTheWrinkledOne said:

restaurants, pubs and clubs make money, employ staff.

community sports events do not.

Call me a cynic, I don't mind.

Maybe my maths is wrong or I am reading this the wrong way. "almost all current cases of COVID-19 can be linked to the outbreak at the Rydges hotel on Swanston and the Stamford Plaza" but 1196+96=1292 and then 1292/2109=61%. To me, that's not "almost all cases" I am confused ...

I think what they are saying is that on May 26 60% of the cases were linked to hotel quarantine, but by July 99% of the cases linked to the hotel quarantine.  So the 40% not linked died off.  This page has a graphic https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-flaws-exposed-in-victorian-hotel-quarantine-sydney-market-health-alert-20200818-p55mom.html (at 12.48pm) 

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