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COVID-19 coronavirus thread #7

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*Andi*

I read a while ago that some countries weren't even counting deaths in aged care in their covid totals - I think it might have been the UK and maybe Sweden? 

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born.a.girl
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, *Andi* said:

I read a while ago that some countries weren't even counting deaths in aged care in their covid totals - I think it might have been the UK and maybe Sweden? 

For sure.  Plus, like all statistics, it can be misleading out of context.

Many of those countries had such shocking levels of community transmission (and resultant deaths) that the percentage of deaths from the community would reduce the percentage from aged care.

When you don't actually have community transmission anywhere but Vic, and even those numbers are very small compared with the (eg) Swedish, UK etc total numbers, of course the percentage from aged care is going to be higher than pretty much everywhere else.

The consequences for our aged care have been horrific.

Quote

But instead, commissioners heard Australia now has one of the worst death rates in the world for aged care residents; 68 per cent of all COVID-19 deaths here are in aged care.

This just means that unlike other countries, our success outside aged care has been hugely successful in comparison with them.

Deaths per X number of people in aged care would show a different perspective.

ETA: 20,000 est care home deaths in the UK (and that's only up till June), with a population at about 30% of theirs, that would leave us with six thousand care homes deaths if we were equal with the UK.   Instead, if ours are 68% of deaths, then that's about 250.

Edited by born.a.girl
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can'tstayaway

Re The NZ outbreak, another 13 cases have been identified and are all linked. 

(taken from The Australian)

All the new cases are linked to the original four COVID-19 cases announced on Tuesday and the majority are linked to Americold, the cold storage company where two of the original cases worked and which believed to be the source of the new cluster. Three of the new cases are employees at Americold, while another seven are family members of those employees.

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IamzFeralz
1 hour ago, seayork2002 said:

When I was in the UK I can't remember the product but DH and I worked out (years ago) that there was a raw product that came from the uk must have been  sent to NZ to put into the finished item then shipped back to the Uk

it may have been NZ apples into a apple pie but it was at our local Tesco's I think or lamb or beef into to something I can't remember we had a few different food talks

I was told by New Zealand relatives that they actually ship their own raw products such as peaches to China to get processed there and it comes back to NZ in cans to be sold in the supermarket.

Even some food here is processed in China.  I have read the packets of breaded fish “fished in NZ, coated in China.”  That is why I cook most of my food from scratch. 

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born.a.girl
13 minutes ago, IamzFeralz said:

I was told by New Zealand relatives that they actually ship their own raw products such as peaches to China to get processed there and it comes back to NZ in cans to be sold in the supermarket.

Even some food here is processed in China.  I have read the packets of breaded fish “fished in NZ, coated in China.”  That is why I cook most of my food from scratch. 

That certainly happens, it happening even with things like Target hampers back when I was talking to them 15 years ago. Deal was we shipped the product to China and it was packed there.  I'm not sure anyone here would even have known, but I've lost track of the packaging laws.

It's definitely true though, that product from overseas is shipped to NZ, is labelled as 'looking like it comes from NZ' into the Australian (and no doubt other) markets.   In 25 years in the food business the packaging law changes were numerous, and even once new ones came in, the next changes were (quite rightly) on the drawing board, so I got to hear many of the ways in which manufacturers manipulated the labelling laws.

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Fifteenyears

I still suspect this is a more likely explanation than frozen foods.  
 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/nearly-two-thirds-of-nz-s-covid-19-border-isolation-staff-had-never-been-tested-a-week-ago.html

And if someone has passed it on to all their fellow workers, as happens in refrigerated environments, they are going to get a chicken-and-egg situation when they test surfaces anyway.  Did the virus on the surface infect the four workers, or did four infected workers result in virus on surfaces.

WA had a case among quarantine hotel staff.  Vic had a few.  It happens because this bug is super infectious, and you HAVE to be looking for it.

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blimkybill
1 hour ago, born.a.girl said:

For sure.  Plus, like all statistics, it can be misleading out of context.

Many of those countries had such shocking levels of community transmission (and resultant deaths) that the percentage of deaths from the community would reduce the percentage from aged care.

When you don't actually have community transmission anywhere but Vic, and even those numbers are very small compared with the (eg) Swedish, UK etc total numbers, of course the percentage from aged care is going to be higher than pretty much everywhere else.

The consequences for our aged care have been horrific.

This just means that unlike other countries, our success outside aged care has been hugely successful in comparison with them.

Deaths per X number of people in aged care would show a different perspective.

ETA: 20,000 est care home deaths in the UK (and that's only up till June), with a population at about 30% of theirs, that would leave us with six thousand care homes deaths if we were equal with the UK.   Instead, if ours are 68% of deaths, then that's about 250.

The fact that 68%of our covid deaths have been in aged care does not at all give us "one of the worst rates of covid deaths in aged care". Having the worst rate would be about the number of deaths, or cases, in aged care, relative to the total population in aged care. Or something like that. And we wouldn't be anywhere near the worst on that front. 

I hate misuse of statistics,  especially when they use misinformation to erroneously make something seem much worse than it is. 

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franklymum
Posted (edited)

Just leaving this here. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels warm inside giving Murdoch's propaganda beast the finger.  

 

Edited by franklymum
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born.a.girl
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, blimkybill said:

The fact that 68%of our covid deaths have been in aged care does not at all give us "one of the worst rates of covid deaths in aged care". Having the worst rate would be about the number of deaths, or cases, in aged care, relative to the total population in aged care. Or something like that. And we wouldn't be anywhere near the worst on that front. 

I hate misuse of statistics,  especially when they use misinformation to erroneously make something seem much worse than it is. 

Me too!  Lies, lies, and damned statistics as my lecturer told me in 1976 Statistics 101.   In fact we're highly likely to be one of the better ones.   Like Canada, our community transmission rates have been (Vic notwithstanding) so massively better than most countries, that it makes the aged care deaths (and each one is tragic, given the nature of the condition) look worse percentage wise, which as you say, is a nonsensical comparison.

The problem with abusing statistics, as I'm sure you'd agree, is that if we want an end result from the facts. then they need to be reported accurately.  We missed the 'first wave' and we had the opportunity of learning how to keep this out of aged care from the experience of other countries.  That is our shame, as far as I'm concerned.

Even with victoria's figures, we've done extraordinarily well compared with just about any country they might like to compare us with. There are countries (ETA I've no idea where this sentence was going to end.)

 

Edited by born.a.girl
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Meepy
3 hours ago, Romeo Void said:

" Prof Joseph Ibrahim highlighted Australia’s death rate in residential aged care – now the second-worst in the world.."

As @blimkybill said, this statistic means nothing as it is taken out of context.  It is really annoying it has been taken as correct and repeated ad nauseum by media outlets without qualifying it.  

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born.a.girl
Just now, Meepy said:

As @blimkybill said, this statistic means nothing as it is taken out of context.  It is really annoying it has been taken as correct and repeated ad nauseum by media outlets without qualifying it.  

I was really hesitant to point that out - it felt a bit like I might be seen to be say 'oh no, our aged care deaths are not that bad', whereas that's not the point at all.

The most frustrating thing is that if we want change, we need precise facts, not hyperbole.  With cherry picked statistics, comes the opportunity to refute them, which then becomes the discussion, rather than the need for change, which is sorely needed.

It reminds me a bit of headlines which scream 'Federal government gives more per private student than state school student', which is true of itself, but ignores that state education is state funded.  While the two sides debate with each other about the statistics, what's lost is the discussion about whether there should be a single cent going to high fee private schools.

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Gumbette
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, can'tstayaway said:

Re The NZ outbreak, another 13 cases have been identified and are all linked. 

(taken from The Australian)

 

ABC has disputed the likelihood of the virus being transmitted via freight.

Is it possible that the virus came into New Zealand by freight, rather than nestled inside a person?

Dr Bloomfield is sceptical.

"It's unlikely. The most likely explanation is person-to-person transmission or more fleeting … transmission [from] an infected surface somewhere, and the person has picked up the virus from there," he said.

"But we are wanting to rule out the cold store link."

It's the nature of the freight that has NZ authorities even considering this possibility.

COVID-19 survives longer in cooler, temperature-controlled environments and there are reports coming out of China that traces of coronavirus have been found on freight at ports coming from overseas.

However, there's been no documented cases of someone being infected by these traces.

Epidemiologist Professor Mary-Louise McLaws from the University of New South Wales said conditions would have to be perfect for an infectious level of the virus to survive on freight between countries.

"It's a virus that's very lazy. Its highly infectious, but very lazy, so if you get it in the right temperature crowded room with low air-flow it will transmit easily, but on freight it would have to work very hard to survive," Professor McLaws said.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-13/new-zealand-racing-track-down-source-coronavirus-outbreak/12555718

Edited by Gumbette
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IamzFeralz
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Fifteenyears said:

Apparently there is speculation  it could be a quarantine breach because the testing of the virus strain in the infected people shows a UK/Australia profile.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-new-zealand-update-14-new-covid19-cases-virus-grows-before-it-slows-jacinda-ardern/4c78066c-153a-4cae-9428-b83affb33bf8

 

 

Edited by IamzFeralz
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22Fruitmincepies
5 hours ago, Riotproof said:

What can be done? 
 

We can’t control how viruses mutate across species. We could keep washing our hands. I’m a big fan of that. 

 

4 hours ago, Lou-bags said:

 

Research into emerging infectious diseases is a whole field of research, people. 

There is research looking into how best to respond to a novel pathogen from a public health perspective; research into the impact of climate change, habitat destruction etc on the likelihood of new pathogens emerging. There are people who spend their entire research career surveying viruses in wild and domestic animal populations (like bats, birds etc), searching for evidence of mutations that may allow these pathogens to jump species and so on.

What we NEED is for their to be a political will to invest in these types of investigations. Not morons like Trump defunding entire organisations doing these exact things. Or governments like those in Australia who defund CSIRO, let funding into research more broadly flounder such at 90% of the ideas of our most highly trained scientists get filed away as "Past Unsuccessful Grant Applications". 

 

<end rant>

Australia had an incredible group of scientists that were collaborating and training up baby scientists in the field of emerging infectious disease - the Australian Biosecurity Collaborative Research Centre for Emerging Infectious Disease. Scientists were working throughout Australia and Asia on human/animal diseases such as Hendra and avian influenza, as well as agricultural biosecurity threats such as foot and mouth. The coalition government defunded it. 

Things we can do - keep wild animals separate from agricultural animals, stop deforestation and the push of farming into deforested areas, and working to reduce climate change. 

there are a large number of examples of diseases that have emerged/re-emerged in the last few decades, and more will come. 

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Riotproof

But being so global, we can’t control what other countries do. 

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Kallie88
15 minutes ago, Riotproof said:

But being so global, we can’t control what other countries do. 

We can't, but we're not doing a great job ourselves either. Best to start there I guess

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purplekitty

Yeah,we're pretty good at encroaching on and destroying wildlife habitats.

I see NSW is devastating another koala home this week.

#koalakiller

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22Fruitmincepies
30 minutes ago, Riotproof said:

But being so global, we can’t control what other countries do. 

It was a global ‘we’ 

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Just Another Cat
6 hours ago, lazycritter said:

For those worried about him,  there's a Facebook page called give Dan Andrews a hug.

 

https://m.facebook.com/events/996031494188954?view=permalink&id=1004212220037548

I’d like to see this kind of thing make the news. Or the Herald Sun poll showing people still support DA.

With everything that’s happening right now. With the errors of the past. With the media constantly trying to incite hate. The people still overwhelmingly support DA and co.

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Lucrezia Bauble
7 minutes ago, Just Another Cat said:

I’d like to see this kind of thing make the news. Or the Herald Sun poll showing people still support DA.

With everything that’s happening right now. With the errors of the past. With the media constantly trying to incite hate. The people still overwhelmingly support DA and co.

i think Dan is feeling the love! makes me think of this little twitter gem a few weeks ago...

D330E82D-232C-4BAD-A92A-102D74076148.jpeg

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Lou-bags
44 minutes ago, 22Fruitmincepies said:

It was a global ‘we’ 

Indeed!

China has a lot of research in this area. The paper that came out very recently, identifying a flu strain with pandemic potential in pigs was the result of viral surveillance by Chinese researchers in science.

Plus, a lot of the deforestation and so on happening in places all over the world is being done by huge corporations swooping in and exploiting countries and their people for their resources.

The same exploited people are the worst hit by the fallout from this greed, too.

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purplekitty
30 minutes ago, Lou-bags said:

Indeed!

China has a lot of research in this area. The paper that came out very recently, identifying a flu strain with pandemic potential in pigs was the result of viral surveillance by Chinese researchers in science.

Plus, a lot of the deforestation and so on happening in places all over the world is being done by huge corporations swooping in and exploiting countries and their people for their resources.

The same exploited people are the worst hit by the fallout from this greed, too.

We need to recognise that we are making the top 1% even richer with money they can't possibly spend while exploiting and destroying the world.

The chickens will come home to roost in our lifetimes.

There is no running away from it, we have no other home.

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Lou-bags
47 minutes ago, purplekitty said:

We need to recognise that we are making the top 1% even richer with money they can't possibly spend while exploiting and destroying the world.

The chickens will come home to roost in our lifetimes.

There is no running away from it, we have no other home.

Very much this. It's depressing to think about it too much, to be honest (but equally putting my head in the sand helps no one either). I think I need another wine. 

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Ozquoll
7 hours ago, born.a.girl said:

It's definitely true though, that product from overseas is shipped to NZ, is labelled as 'looking like it comes from NZ' into the Australian (and no doubt other) markets. 

This is why I don't buy food that is labelled as being from New Zealand. It is all too likely to have been food that was grown in China (or possibly elsewhere) and taken a lovely long journey to New Zealand before being sent to Australia. So it's a lose-lose - not only is the stuff (probably) grown in a country with much looser food safety standards than NZ, it has also consumed a huge amount of energy being shipped long distances.*

 

*Yes, I know that long distance shipping is actually quite energy efficient, especially compared to, say, air freight. I still contend that growing something in China, loading it onto a ship and sending it to NZ, unloading it, re-packaging it, and loading it onto another ship to Australia, is a frightfully wasteful business. 

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Ozquoll
Posted (edited)

Hmm, I was sceptical of the Russian vaccine success story, and it seems I may have been right to be - there are quite a few respected Russian scientists saying that the vaccine may not be safe and the testing protocols were nowhere near adequate:

https://mol.im/a/8622761

(Daily Mail.link)

Edited by Ozquoll
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