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COVID-19 coronavirus thread #7

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Lou-bags
29 minutes ago, RichardParker said:

Grasping at straws. 😔

If we had infinite resources and capacity, and the cooperation of the people, it would be a pretty good straw. Alas...

 

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born.a.girl
5 hours ago, Kavity1 said:

NZ wasn't as isolated as they make out, they import huge amounts of frozen food from China to repackage as product of NZ, frozen food has been a very known source since early days.

Do you mean the packaging, or the food inside the package.

 

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can'tstayaway
14 minutes ago, Soontobegran said:

Still nothing to say the packaging of the frozen food has sparked an outbreak in any country that may have received exported goods. 

NZ is investigating whether it could be the source the of their current outbreak. 
 

Investigations were focussing on the potential the virus was imported by freight. Bloomfield [Director General of Health] said surface testing was underway in an Auckland cool store where a man from the infected family worked.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/world/oceania/freight-a-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-officials-20200812-p55kz4.html

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born.a.girl
3 hours ago, Fifteenyears said:

Or that anything happened other than someone with covid coughing on a chopping board.

I haven't seen a lot of articles on that, but from memory the Chinese were accusing Norway of the virus on the boards coming from the Norwegian salmon they were cutting on it.

I assume every freight aircraft/boat has people on board who may well be asymptomatic. I've not the foggiest what the routines are for keeping separate the citizens on the ground, and those on the ship/plane - can only assume they're reasonably rigorous, but if an infected asymptomatic person is touching freight, paperwork, other surfaces etc it doesn't seem impossible that it can be transmitted that way.

 

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RichardParker
47 minutes ago, Lou-bags said:

If we had infinite resources and capacity, and the cooperation of the people, it would be a pretty good straw. Alas...

 

Yes, except it's costing a few billion per week for Victoria to be in such a strict lockdown, so I feel like we COULD actually do it.  I personally know that there are plenty of tests available - but the labs have said they have enough....

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can'tstayaway
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, born.a.girl said:

if an infected asymptomatic person is touching freight, paperwork, other surfaces etc it doesn't seem impossible that it can be transmitted that way.

Wasn’t there the recommendation in Australia for travellers to sanitize their luggage when they got home due to the outbreak of Covid with Qantas baggage handlers in Adelaide?  The risks of transmission are low but the risk mitigation is also pretty easy. 

Edited by can'tstayaway
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can'tstayaway
1 minute ago, RichardParker said:

Yes, except it's costing a few billion per week for Victoria to be in such a strict lockdown, so I feel like we COULD actually do it.  I personally know that there are plenty of tests available - but the labs have said they have enough....

I think the sort of sentinel testing you are talking about works when community transmission numbers are low.

Like in WA where they have random testing of teachers and students to ensure Covid cases aren’t brewing undetected in schools.

There’s also sentinel testing of a variety of illnesses through GPs and Covid has been added to the panel. It helps the Health Departments to keep an eye on what is circulating in the community. 

So, I think a level of sentinel testing is already occurring. It’s just not as practicable in Victoria right now. Even with testing, the most effective way of reducing case numbers is for people to minimise contact with others (and good hygiene practices etc etc). 

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Fifteenyears

Given that one of the folk work there, it’s where you’d start, isn’t it.   I think it is unlikely spread has gone undetected for 100 days.  We know it spreads exponentially, and we know that 15% of cases require hospitalisation.    So if you go by the more likely notion that it came in from outside, you would be looking for that.    If he works with international freight, then it’s a starting point.   You’d also look for close contacts with close contacts who have returned from overseas, or who work in quarantine or whatever.   If/as more people test positive, they’ll probably find the links.

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RichardParker

Yes, but you might not have to have such a long lock-down if you can release the people who test negative twice within a two-week period.

Mammoth and costly operation, for sure, but so is restricting the movement of 5 million people. 

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can'tstayaway
2 minutes ago, RichardParker said:

Yes, but you might not have to have such a long lock-down if you can release the people who test negative twice within a two-week period.

Mammoth and costly operation, for sure, but so is restricting the movement of 5 million people. 

But there’s no guarantee that those who’ve tested negative this week won’t catch it and then test positive next week. 

For restrictions to be relaxed early while there are so many active cases, would require a mammoth testing exercise. It’s not the best use of resources when the labs testing Covid also test other diseases and we don’t want other life saving diagnostic testing to be compromised. 

The longer people are interacting, the longer restrictions will have to be in place for.  Even with testing. And remember, with the sheer volume of tests, there will be a lag on results. It is horrible, but unfortunately, the movement restrictions are the quickest way to get out of the hole. 

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born.a.girl
9 minutes ago, can'tstayaway said:

Wasn’t there the recommendation in Australia for travellers to sanitize their luggage when they got home due to the outbreak of Covid with Qantas baggage handlers in Adelaide?  The risks of transmission are low but the task mitigation is also pretty easy. 

Sure, early on we seemed much more focused on surfaces than we are now.   I remember reading study after study about it, talking about how long it can last on different surfaces.

Then the discussion seemed to change, with it being considered very low risk, given the virus starts to die as soon as it's on the surface, and anything I've read says it may still 'register' (not sure of the correct word) but that it's unlikely to be sufficient to be infectious. Of course that's not that relevant if the infectious person only touched it five minutes ago.

With so much community transmission in Vic, though, who knows?  

Given we know the environment in meatworks magnifies the risk, perhaps there's the same elevated risk in refrigerated port storage?

I guess only people on the ground, who know whether there's any relevant interaction between aircraft/boat crew will know whether it's possible.

Surface testing is obviously the logical step, if it's not on any surface, who knows from there?

 

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can'tstayaway

My comments re surfaces was in reference to the current NZ outbreak. 

My high school children are complaining about wiping down their desks between lessons. I tell them that the risk of infection is small but it really doesn’t negatively impact them, spending a minute to wipe down the desk but the potential benefit is there. I’m also reminding the primary kid to not touch their nose or rub their eyes and to use the sanitizer if they won’t wash their hands during the day. 

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born.a.girl
1 minute ago, can'tstayaway said:

My comments re surfaces was in reference to the current NZ outbreak. 

 

Yes, so are mine, second half.

The difference in the frozen goods, if those surfaces are responsible, is the length of time the virus had to sit there, deteriorating all of the time.

From all accounts, if you had five infected people all over the school, then left the school vacant for ?X days, then the virus wouldn't survive.

That's why I'm wondering, if it is on a surface, if it's been on there for many, many days, or only minutes.

 

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Fifteenyears

I am loving the institutionally mandated wiping down of surfaces and handwashing etc at school.  And the ‘stay home with mild symptoms’ thing.  I have a kid who catches everything going around, and she goes down hard so this pandemic has been a bit terrifying.    And I have long disliked the fact that they have ‘fruit break’ without any way to wash their hands, and at her sport they stop for a snack break without heading to the bathroom at all and so on.   I send along sanitizer, but when nobody else is doing it it gets forgotten as often as it is remembered.

But now.......we haven’t had a cold all year.  Not one.  In the entire family.  I know it is only August, but even if we have some bad luck and go back to colds as usual from this point on, we’re still way ahead of the odds.

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ljbellus
5 hours ago, Just Another Cat said:

I’m sick of it.

Hotel quarantine has been put on hold in VIC and there’s an inquiry underway. Wait for the outcome. Done.

I feel like the press questions are mostly a waste of time. They barely ask anything that I, as a Victorian under stage 4 restrictions, want answers to.

I wish the media would just lay off and support DA and the Victorian community to get through this. 

 

5 hours ago, can'tstayaway said:

I’m not a Victorian, but I think it’s important that questions are answered and it makes sense that it is by a single person such as the Premier.  It’s part of their job.  We just don’t usually see this inane part of it during preCovid times.

International hotel quarantine has been suspended in Victoria but domestic hotel quarantine is still operating. There’s an article in the papers today about a senior health bureaucrat who was planning on (privately) selling alcohol to quarantine guests, some of whom have alcohol dependency issues.  Completely not acceptable using your position to make a profit due to someone else’s misfortune. 

I feel torn between the two sentiments. I want answers and agree it's his job as boss of the state to provide them but it is getting sad now and I feel sorry for him. He looks out of his depth and he would know that some areas of his cabinet made decisions that resulted in the situation we are in here in Vic. This must weigh on him terribly. Just the decisions someone made about not using ADF are bad enough and I fear there will be more. Maybe he should reduce the amount of time he spends doing these briefings?

In a statement, Ms Reynolds said an application for 850 ADF personnel to assist with quarantining returning travellers was made on June 24 before it was withdrawn the following day.

“ADF officials asked whether Victorian authorities required assistance with its mandatory quarantine system on multiple occasions,” she said.

“No request for quarantine support was subsequently received from Victoria at that time.

“On 12 April 2020, Victorian authorities reaffirmed to ADF officials that all quarantine compliance monitoring operations were within Victorian authorities’ capacity.”

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Riotproof

The hand washing is pretty awesome, isn’t it? 
My kids don’t get many colds, but like you, they haven’t *touch wood* had a single thing. 
DS is a nail biter and seems to get worms about once-twice a year too, nothing so far. 

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RichardParker
20 minutes ago, can'tstayaway said:

But there’s no guarantee that those who’ve tested negative this week won’t catch it and then test positive next week. 

For restrictions to be relaxed early while there are so many active cases, would require a mammoth testing exercise. It’s not the best use of resources when the labs testing Covid also test other diseases and we don’t want other life saving diagnostic testing to be compromised. 

The longer people are interacting, the longer restrictions will have to be in place for.  Even with testing. And remember, with the sheer volume of tests, there will be a lag on results. It is horrible, but unfortunately, the movement restrictions are the quickest way to get out of the hole. 

Yeah but we can increase the diagnostic capability  - its not cheap, but it's nothing compared to the economic cost of lockdowns.  The PCR machines are available in Australia - they take up the space of a largish printer - they could be installed in every hospital in the country - the kits themselves are relatively cheap and plentiful - there is an army of unemployed people able to be trained - take the staff straight from the airlines, perhaps.

The cynic in me thinks that the centralised pathology labs are making a killing at the moment and don't want any competition.  At the beginning of this pandemic, there were only about 7 test kits registered on the ARTG, now there are over 60 - but the testing rate hasn't increased by the same proportion. There's a bottle-neck somewhere.

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Ruf~Feral~es
5 minutes ago, ljbellus said:

 

I feel torn between the two sentiments. I want answers and agree it's his job as boss of the state to provide them but it is getting sad now and I feel sorry for him. He looks out of his depth and he would know that some areas of his cabinet made decisions that resulted in the situation we are in here in Vic. This must weigh on him terribly. Just the decisions someone made about not using ADF are bad enough and I fear there will be more. Maybe he should reduce the amount of time he spends doing these briefings?

 

I don't think he looks out of his depth.  I think he looks exhausted, but in control, and very calm in the face of hostile, and often stupid, questions.

It is the same questions over and over again.  He has an independent inquiry looking into it.  He is getting on with the job of managing TODAY and TOMORROW - the questions of why we didn't learn the lessons of overseas, the aged care breakouts, quarantine will be dealt with, and are bigger than just Dan Andrews.

I have the utmost respect for him fronting the media day in and day out.  I have less respect for the inane questions over and over again.  And less again for Scomo who is not copping the same treatment about Aged Care, which is squarely his issue. 

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Meepy

Victoria has released the workplace breakdowns.  Interesting to see - 630 cases in schools but as Scomo said “schools are safe”.  Despite challenges with remote learning it does appear we are safer at home for the time being in Melbourne.

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WaitForMe
9 hours ago, can'tstayaway said:

I think your anecdote again demonstrates what the experts are saying - Covid transmissions can be stopped. Good hygiene practices and some common sense is effective in stopping transmissions. 

I wonder if the child in the story got Covid from school contacts or other community contacts or possibly a household member who already had it?  Does NSW Health do serology testing as part of their contact tracing?

When one of the kids have caught gastro, as their main care giver, I have managed to avoid catching it too with good hygiene practices. 

Given its airborne or at least droplets in the air, I think it demonstrates that kids aren't big transmitter, which is what the experts have said.

I can't really compare to gastro as thats a primarily surface transmitted virus. I have become increasingly vigilant with hygiene over my parenting years and now frequently manage to avoid it... except that time a child vomited on my face *shudder*. But I don't need to wear a mask, for instance.

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JRA
6 minutes ago, Meepy said:

Victoria has released the workplace breakdowns.  Interesting to see - 630 cases in schools but as Scomo said “schools are safe”.  Despite challenges with remote learning it does appear we are safer at home for the time being in Melbourne.

A significant portion of them are linked to the one school

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Fifteenyears

Yeah nearly 200 are linked to AlTaqua.  Although it is important to remember that it closed (for school holidays) before the first case was even notified, and didn’t reopen for face to face learning.   Meanwhile the staff and families continued to intermingle at social events, in homes, in places of worship, in lifts and towers and whatnot.  So it is impossible to really trace how much the spread was at school and how much was just within the school community.

Tangara, I think, will turn out much the same - they will probably never be able to definitively pin down what happened at school and what happened outside school hours.

It is interesting really. In a way these self contained private schools should be protective.  By doing everything in house - sport, music, socialising, etc, kids are being exposed to fewer people from fewer areas than if they were out doing community sport, and having private music lessons and so on.    But once the virus actually gets into that setting, the ‘in house’ nature of it all stops being an advantage and helps facilitate spread.    Probably helpful for contact tracers though.

And there is a chance that putting the entire senior school into 14 days isolation the day the first case was notified might prevent it from spreading too widely either within the school population or outside it.

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JRA

Sadly I can see things going downhill in Sydney. Excerpt from the ABC blog. I must admit I am not sure why they just dont take away their licence

The Garry Owen Hotel in Rozelle has been slapped with $10,000 in fines after being declared the worst pub in NSW for COVID-19 safety by the industry regulator.
   
The NSW Liquor and Gaming Authority described the hotel in Sydney's inner-west as having a "complete disregard for mandated COVID safety measures".
  
Liquor and Gaming's director of compliance, Dimitri Argeres said the breaches shocked COVID safety inspectors.
  
"This would probably be the most blatant non-compliance we've seen with the public health orders so far," Mr Argeres said. 
   
Inspectors identified several issues during their visit, including management not enforcing sign-in registration, not maintaining physical distancing and not ensuring patrons were seated.

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Lunafreya

Just reinforces staying home 

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