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Chelli

COVID-19 coronavirus thread #7

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Chelli

New thread time. 

Link to previous thread

 

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Ozquoll

Gold 😚

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PocketIcikleflakes

Silver lined facemask!

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purpleduck
Posted (edited)

Bronze

Edited by purpleduck
to remove bad taste

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Lunafreya

Pearl 

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Lou-bags

Wooden spoon 

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NWO

The Australian PM doesn't have much say over the budget or fiscal policy so it isn't him playing Santa Claus ....

and $AUD 289 Billion dollars is hardly 'a bit of stimulus money given here and there'.

It is 14% of our GDP ffs - and this could be just the start. How much more do you think Australia can borrow (or print) , you want another 14% in the next 6 months?  Unemployment will keep rising and tax revenues will continue to fall and Santa will have to keep giving. None of this can possibly end well.

The only reason people aren't freaking out more is because the stock market (ours and the other main ones (DOW, FTSE, DAX, etc) are at about pre corona levels. How is this possible you may ask? :)  I have my theories but this forum hasn't had the appetite for anything like that lately so no point.

but if anyone thinks the ASX200 (stock index that measures the value of 200 of the biggest public companies in Australia) should be valued around the same now is it was pre corona then I would love to see your logic.

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got my tinsel on

Scratched.

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PrincessPeach

Got locked out of my quote, but both my mum & MIL are asthmatics & neither of them have had issues wearing them either.

My MIL wore one a lot a few years ago when she went through chemotherapy.

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NWO
Just now, NWO said:

The Australian PM doesn't have much say over the budget or fiscal policy so it isn't him playing Santa Claus ....

and $AUD 289 Billion dollars is hardly 'a bit of stimulus money given here and there'.

It is 14% of our GDP ffs - and this could be just the start. How much more do you think Australia can borrow (or print) , you want another 14% in the next 6 months?  Unemployment will keep rising and tax revenues will continue to fall and Santa will have to keep giving. None of this can possibly end well.

The only reason people aren't freaking out more is because the stock market (ours and the other main ones (DOW, FTSE, DAX, etc) are at about pre corona levels. How is this possible you may ask? :)  I have my theories but this forum hasn't had the appetite for anything like that lately so no point.

but if anyone thinks the ASX200 (stock index that measures the value of 200 of the biggest public companies in Australia) should be valued around the same now is it was pre corona then I would love to see your logic.

So this was from the previous iteration of this thread .... the only way I know how to carry it on so I can refer to it is like this, if anyone knows a better way then happy to hear.

Ok, so I won't bother pasting the responses regarding MMT but I have a question back to those who think it is a feasible option going forward.

What do you think would happen to the value of our dollar (AUD) if a MMT type approach was taken? (especially compared to countries that had a more 'balanced ledger'

I agree governments can just 'print money' and theoretically they can do that for as long as they want (ie - no gold standard to restrict this) - The US have been doing this (at an increasing rate) for years. So yes, they can pay their internal bills - but at some point businesses / people need to do business with other countries.

 

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Ozquoll
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, NWO said:

The Australian PM doesn't have much say over the budget or fiscal policy so it isn't him playing Santa Claus ....

Que? Is there someone else who has more say over fiscal policy than the PM? Who?

Re the money printing/borrowing thing - since we issue our own currency we can keep printing as much of it as we like 😉. Unlike the MMT crowd I think doing this will cause us some strife at some point, but you aren't really surprised that the Government is doing it, are you? 

As for how the stock market is so high - central bank skulduggery 🤷

The situation with unemployment payments in the US is worth watching - the extra $600pw due to coronavirus is due to expire at the end of July. GOP and Dems are arguing about extending it. If it continues it is unlikely to be as high as it is now. 

Edited by Ozquoll
Wrote MMT stuff before seeing your subsequent post

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purplekitty

Late to the party.

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Julie3Girls

Lots of variations in asthma, lots of different triggers. So I can imagine that while some asthmatics are fine with the masks, some might find them more difficult.
My daughter is asthmatic, and the disposable mask is ok. But if her asthma is playing up, covering her mouth and nose wouldn’t be a great option. 
So the exemption would mean if she was out and about and had a flare up, she could take off her mask and not have to worry about getting fined,

 

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Lucrezia Bauble

i wouldn’t say that i’m an MMT enthusiast (yet) - i don’t know if it’s a feasible way forward, i think it’s intriguing and worth exploring.

i agree there are FX implications. the FX markets might decide they don’t want to hold the currency of a country that is printing money to pay its own bills. it could devalue the country’s currency - although - didn’t Greenspan admit they printed money in the GFC? I can’t comment on the short term effects of that (i don’t recall) but long term, the USD doesn’t seem to have suffered. 

my main issue with MMT is actually that it seems to rely on politicians enacting decent taxation policy to keep inflation in check, and i don’t trust any politician (of any stripe) to enact decent tax law, so...there goes that. looks good on paper though. 

 

 

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gruidae
Just now, Lucrezia Bauble said:

- although - didn’t Greenspan admit they printed money in the GFC? I can’t comment on the short term effects of that (i don’t recall) but long term, the USD doesn’t seem to have suffered. 

 

They did. Also did it to the tune of several hundred billion over a couple of occasions last year on Trump's orders, not that the fed was too happy about it.  So far it doesn't seem to have harmed them however - I believe China has bought up a lot of their debt, which could be a problem

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NWO
21 minutes ago, Ozquoll said:

Que? Is there someone else who has more say over fiscal policy than the PM? Who?

Re the money printing/borrowing thing - since we issue our own currency we can keep printing as much of it as we like 😉. Unlike the MMT crowd I think doing this will cause us some strife at some point, but you aren't really surprised that the Government is doing it, are you? 

As for how the stock market is so high - central bank skulduggery 🤷

The situation with unemployment payments in the US is worth watching - the extra $600pw due to coronavirus is due to expire at the end of July. GOP and Dems are arguing about extending it. If it continues it is unlikely to be as high as it is now. 

I am pretty sure you know it is a bit more complicated than just the PM handing out money or deciding on fiscal policy :)  - I was responding at the time to the assertion made below.

 

On 22/07/2020 at 8:27 PM, can'tstayaway said:

And potentially it was the insecure work of security guards that allowed the leakage out of hotel quarantine.  

No, let’s not turn on each other but focus on the Federal government and our PM for his lack of leadership. Playing Santa Claus with a bit of stimulus money here and there for those who he deems have been ‘good’ is not enough. We need a leader who will protect everyone even if it p*sses off people in his party. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Even just the way revenue is collected and then distributed (Sect 96) is complex enough, but there are many processes along the way.  Treasury would be the main influence of course ... and then the budget (or whatever) needs to go through the house / senate.

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NWO
39 minutes ago, Ozquoll said:

Re the money printing/borrowing thing - since we issue our own currency we can keep printing as much of it as we like 😉. Unlike the MMT crowd I think doing this will cause us some strife at some point, but you aren't really surprised that the Government is doing it, are you? 

As for how the stock market is so high - central bank skulduggery 🤷

The situation with unemployment payments in the US is worth watching - the extra $600pw due to coronavirus is due to expire at the end of July. GOP and Dems are arguing about extending it. If it continues it is unlikely to be as high as it is now. 

We can keep printing for sure ... but the party has to end in one way or another. Unless there is a complete global fiscal reset (all debt forgiven) and a new global currency created (cryptos?)  ... which would actually solve the problem and be the best outcome (imo).

I'm not at all surprised the government is doing it ... I would and it is absolutely necessary in these times (at least we haven't been doing it for other reasons for the past 10 yrs like the US - but that is another story) - but the idea that this can continue (ala MMT crowd) is just a fantasy (unless the global reset occurs, then who cares what happens now, why not spend as much as possible :))

Continuously kicking the can up the road will not help in the end.

Re Share market levels - couldn't agree more with your suggestion. Also, as money is cheap then hedge funds (super funds) can borrow at .25% and invest it in instruments that give them a 5-10% return. Why would they want that to stop.

 

 

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RichardParker

Just saw this comment on a covid-19 article - I'm too tired to formulate a decent response...

Quote

If the governments had of spent a fraction of the money they threw at voters, at the aged care industry, we could have stayed open and protected our most vulnerable at the same time.

I know that there are plenty of younger and vulnerable people also in need of protection.  But we could probably still afford to give them Rolls Royce protection (and safe human interaction).  I don't know.  I'm just really feeling for those in lock-down and isolation at the moment.  I feel like there has to be a better way to manage this.  Maybe there isn't.  Just seems like some are paying a really, really big price.  

 

 

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RichardParker
5 minutes ago, NWO said:

Continuously kicking the can up the road will not help in the end.

At the end of what, though?  It's not like a term-mortgage on a family home that needs to be paid off in the lifetime of a person... even that doesn't alway happen - in Japan there are mortgages that get handed down to the next generation...  As long as the nation exists and there is money turning around, it can keep circulating...

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NWO
26 minutes ago, Lucrezia Bauble said:

i wouldn’t say that i’m an MMT enthusiast (yet) - i don’t know if it’s a feasible way forward, i think it’s intriguing and worth exploring.

i agree there are FX implications. the FX markets might decide they don’t want to hold the currency of a country that is printing money to pay its own bills. it could devalue the country’s currency - although - didn’t Greenspan admit they printed money in the GFC? I can’t comment on the short term effects of that (i don’t recall) but long term, the USD doesn’t seem to have suffered. 

my main issue with MMT is actually that it seems to rely on politicians enacting decent taxation policy to keep inflation in check, and i don’t trust any politician (of any stripe) to enact decent tax law, so...there goes that. looks good on paper though. 

 

 

It is intriguing and worth exploring (although hardly a new premise really) but I have no idea how it could ever be feasible. (unless everyone did it, all debt was forgiven and a uniform fx was created)

Yes the US printed money during the GFC - they had to, where was the bail out money going to come from if they didn't? They have continued to do so and the rate is increasing. Congress just keeps raising the debt ceiling (which they have to) and life goes on. 

And yes correct, the USD hasn't suffered (on paper) but that is because it is almost everyone elses (other countries who hold their debt) best interests for it to stay about where it is (other than the US themselves that would prefer a weaker dollar)

The USD is like a global gold standard.... but as a country they are 22 Trillion dollars in debt.

 

 

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NWO
3 minutes ago, RichardParker said:

At the end of what, though?  It's not like a term-mortgage on a family home that needs to be paid off in the lifetime of a person... even that doesn't alway happen - in Japan there are mortgages that get handed down to the next generation...  As long as the nation exists and there is money turning around, it can keep circulating...

But these debts (Gov debt) do need to be paid back at some point. When we say 'printing money' it is the gov selling bonds (5yr, 10yr, 30yr) to companies / financial institutions / other countries which they will need to pay back (including interest) when that loan term ends (same as your term-mortgage on a family home example)

Now a government can keep issuing these bonds (borrowing money against their equity - (their worth and ability to repay) for as long as someone will give them money for the bonds (promise to repay) - then it becomes more of a ponzi scheme and unless the gov can cover up the actual levels of exposure to debt that they have they will find it more difficult to raise money the next time ... and if they do sell their debt the entity buying it will want more interest to cover the risk. (like a low doc mortgage loan) and the cycle continues.

Eventually something has to give ... either the country recovers, pays back all their debt (or at least get it under control) and life goes on - or, that country starts to default on their repayments, their credit rating drops and no one will do business with them.  There is then no money to pay their people, their dollar has become very low which makes the cost of doing business with other countries high, petrol / travel / anything imported increases.

That is the end of the road ....

 

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BECZ

#DIDN’T GET  THE MEMO

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Zeppelina

I spent a bit of time in Australian QAnon/sovereign citizen land on twitter today and... hoooo boy. That's a terrifying, awful place. It feels very cult-like. A few charismatic leaders, sharing their 'secret knowledge' with believers who just want the 'truth' (which usually means a situation in which they can feel in control and/or superior).

They have their own terminology and language, they follow 'scripts' when dealing with authorities (you'll notice that in the videos out there - the Bunnings lady, the woman in the car a few days ago, the truck driver up in Qld - they all use similar terminology or sentences), they quote laws which are almost entirely misinterpreted, misunderstood, and sometimes misappropriated from the US.

The worst thing for me is that there is literally nothing that any of us can do to change this - because anything we, or the government, or authorities, say to them, is just 'proof' that we are all brainwashed 'sheeple'. Some of them even express pity towards us, because we are under the spell of the authorities.

The entire thing makes me shudder.

A PP in the previous thread mentioned having some kind of special symbol or item for people with genuine medical conditions - I know that in the UK, the sunflower lanyard - a symbol of hidden disability - has been misappropriated by abled people trying to get around wearing a mask. And one of the Australian QAnon leaders released a video in the past couple of days telling non-asthmatic followers to get asthma medication as proof so that they don't need to wear a mask. It's disgusting.

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can'tstayaway
1 hour ago, Lucrezia Bauble said:

i agree there are FX implications. the FX markets might decide they don’t want to hold the currency of a country that is printing money to pay its own bills. it could devalue the country’s currency - although - didn’t Greenspan admit they printed money in the GFC? I can’t comment on the short term effects of that (i don’t recall) but long term, the USD doesn’t seem to have suffered. 

The appeal of certain currencies in the FX markets is stability. The AUD is more attractive as a place to park money if the economy is going well (ie not into recession) and there is political stability.  

Quantitative easing, for the right reasons, wouldn’t necessarily scare off investors. We don’t want the investors who are looking for instability and market fluctuations anyway. 

The head of the RBA, when announcing the QE policy, said they would be buying govt bonds directly and on the secondary market. The purpose of this ‘printing money’ policy isn’t to just pay govt debts, but also to inject capital into the economy so that businesses can survive and hopefully thrive.

For those businesses that are able to take advantage of this period, it is an opportunity to access cheap loans and structure their business to expand. I know several small businesses that are looking better now than they were preCovid. Admittedly, this is in Qld where our unemployment rate actually improved in June. 

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NWO
4 minutes ago, can'tstayaway said:

The appeal of certain currencies in the FX markets is stability. The AUD is more attractive as a place to park money if the economy is going well (ie not into recession) and there is political stability.  

Quantitative easing, for the right reasons, wouldn’t necessarily scare off investors. We don’t want the investors who are looking for instability and market fluctuations anyway. 

The head of the RBA, when announcing the QE policy, said they would be buying govt bonds directly and on the secondary market. The purpose of this ‘printing money’ policy isn’t to just pay govt debts, but also to inject capital into the economy so that businesses can survive and hopefully thrive.

For those businesses that are able to take advantage of this period, it is an opportunity to access cheap loans and structure their business to expand. I know several small businesses that are looking better now than they were preCovid. Admittedly, this is in Qld where our unemployment rate actually improved in June. 

What does 'place to park money' mean (to you) - Can you explain or define what you mean in a use case example pls?  and yes absolutely, any country whose economy is going well and has political stability will be a sort after place to invest in one form or another.

I'm not sure how *what you said) 'head of the RBA, when announcing the QE policy, said they would be buying govt bonds directly and on the secondary market' differs from what I said the gov was doing in a previous post? Yes the RBA 'buys' the govt bonds (from their own government) and then they sell them to whomever wants to buy them. This purpose is not to pay govt debt (well, it wasn't pre-covid as Australia's balance sheet was looking good - surplus forecast even) but as you say, to inject into the economy either as direct payments from the government to individuals or businesses .... or the RBA lends to banks and other financial institutions and then they lend to business / home borrowers etc.

This injection into the economy is required and a proven way to get through economic down times .... as long as your scenario 'For those businesses that are able to take advantage of this period, it is an opportunity to access cheap loans and structure their business to expand. I know several small businesses that are looking better now than they were preCovid.' plays out across the whole country and the economy picks up, the debt is paid off (easy as the business is doing better now and the interest is low), that business employs more people, they buy more .. etc etc

The scenario above will work just fine if the economy recovers - economics 101, great outcome and let us hope that is what happens in Australia / world ...... but it was the alternative that I was referring to.

Imagine the RBA buying govt bonds (which is the same as borrowing money from your partner / spouse / business partner .... it all comes from the same bucket) and the RBA sells that debt to businesses (via banks) who borrow to try and either get through the crisis (survive) and / or take advantage of easy / cheap money to grow their business, or the RBA packages up 5yr loans of huge amounts and lend to other countries etc.

Then, things don't improve, so the businesses that borrowed the money default, the banks start tightening their lending criteria so they don't need or want to buy from the RBA, other countries who borrowed are facing the same problem and start to default, our dollar goes down so it costs even more to do business .... anyway, worst case scenario but my point is the gov cant keep selling the RBA bonds (ie printing money) if the RBA has no one sell the bonds to because of the above reasons. Like all ponzi schemes it must come to a end if economic outcomes do not end up positive.

 

 

 

 

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