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Chelli

COVID-19 coronavirus thread #6

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Chelli

New thread time

Link to previous thread is here

Kind regards
Chelli

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purplekitty

Gold

 

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Nasty Teens

 Silver

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Lou-bags

Bronze again! 

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Lucrezia Bauble

to the PP who said her friend was ordered back to work while awaiting result - that’s insane! when i got my test i was specifically told to self isolate until results came in (and then after , depending, of course)  - oddly my dh and kids were not told to self isolate, unless i got a positive. but maybe because i was only testing because i had a cold...no contact with a known case etc. 

 

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blue86
2 minutes ago, Lucrezia Bauble said:

to the PP who said her friend was ordered back to work while awaiting result - that’s insane! when i got my test i was specifically told to self isolate until results came in (and then after , depending, of course)  - oddly my dh and kids were not told to self isolate, unless i got a positive. but maybe because i was only testing because i had a cold...no contact with a known case etc. 

 

Agreed. Especially for a government worker! At my (local gov) site, any symptoms shown is a requirement to get tested and leave granted until results back. In my team (essential service of an essential servicd) if a household member has to be tested, the. We ask our staff to be tested and allow the leave for results as well

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Julie3Girls

So people is south west Sydney have been told to get tested and self isolate.  People are wanting to get tested - queues have been anything from 5-8 hours long.

so tonight, saw a Facebook update from a local politician, informing people of an issue being raised, regarding the huge number of Sydney people who have been turning up at the John Hunter hospital (in Newcastle, 2 hours from Sydney) for testing.   And I think it is highly unlikely they are simply turning around and driving straight back - at the very least I imagine they would be wanting to stop and eat. 

Seriously, while I commend people for wanting to get tested, who in their right mind thinks it’s a good idea to go to a regional area so far from home to get tested?

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-Emissary-

I know someone who got told to get tested (negative) and still remain in self-isolation for 14 days and to get tested again next week. 

He was working at Crossroad Casula. 

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Sweet.Pea
5 minutes ago, -Emissary- said:

I know someone who got told to get tested (negative) and still remain in self-isolation for 14 days and to get tested again next week. 

He was working at Crossroad Casula. 

That's what they were advising for those people on the news today. I think because it takes on average 5 - 8 days to develop symptoms and up to 14 days.

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Fifteenyears
3 minutes ago, Sweet.Pea said:

That's what they were advising for those people on the news today. I think because it takes on average 5 - 8 days to develop symptoms and up to 14 days.

They have been saying that for days now.  If you’ve been exposed, and it appears a crazy number of people who were there on the 3rd were , you need to get tested straight away so that if you are already positive they can start contact tracing, but you also need to do 14 days quarantine to give the virus time to appear.

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purplekitty

Victoria.

Home after a rough, understaffed shift in #Emergency. More & more #COVID19, some needing ICU. The stress is showing in many colleagues, but I'm so proud of the way they just keep stepping up. Please, please lock yourselves down, because if this continues, we'll struggle. #auspol
6:20 PM · Jul 15, 2020
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can'tstayaway

When you say the PM is ignoring expert advice, which experts are you talking about?  It's my understanding all Governments are taking their health advice from CMO.   The deputy CMO recently called elimination a false hope, and even dangerous.   He's called the Gov strategy, aggressive suppression.... are we not then talking about the same thing?   


I lost my reply when the old thread closed. 

CMOs/CHOs are bureaucrats who provide advice to the government.  The government can choose to follow the advice or not. CMOs have to follow and implement the policy the government chooses.  They can’t speak out against their ‘masters’. 

I think the deputy CMO you are referring to is Nick Coatsworth. He mentioned the differing understandings of the definition of elimination. I felt he was playing word games and conflating elimination and eradication. Eradication is unrealistic at this point in time. He also mentioned that Australia’s aim was to pursue elimination in local areas.  Acting CMO Paul Kelly, a few months back, was supportive of elimination, CMO Murphy then walked that back when questioned by journos. Dr Kelly is an epidemiologist and support for elimination matches the opinion of other epidemiologists too. 

Morrison commissioned a report by the Group of 8 universities called the Roadmap to Recovery. It was prepared by over 100 different epidemiologists, public health experts, mental health experts, indigenous scholars, communications and behaviour change experts, ethicists, philosophers, political scientists, economists and business scholars.  They looked at history (Spanish Flu) and modelled possible scenarios.
 

They concluded that the optimal scenario was an elimination strategy because it would result in overall improved economic outcomes in 18 months. Other scenarios provided short term benefits but they didn’t last due to the uncertainty of ongoing outbreaks and shutdowns that are unpredictable. 
 

At the start of the pandemic, Morrison told us he was making decision to not pursue elimination as a strategy based on modelling commissioned by the Doherty Institute which he refused to release. After much pressure, he finally released it and other experts pointed out the flaws in the Doherty Institute modelling. One of the flaws was the type of model used, would never allow for the elimination of Covid because it provided for fractions of a person. From those 0.1 ‘people’, community transmissions could occur again in the model.  We know that we don’t have a fraction of a person in the real world. 
 

Morrison didn’t want to implement restrictions and used the Doherty modelling as the reason.  He claimed that we would have to shut down for 6 months or more if we shut down so it was best to not shut down.  We know that is not true, but he can either so easily tell bald faced lies or, he isn’t smart enough to understand complex situations and adapt as we learn more about Covid.  

I had some other points in my lost post but I can’t remember them now. Basically, I feel that Morrison isn’t a great leader for the country during this period.  It doesn’t feel like he is governing for all of us, just the privileged who can afford to take precautions. 

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Zeppelina
18 minutes ago, can'tstayaway said:

They concluded that the optimal scenario was an elimination strategy because it would result in overall improved economic outcomes in 18 months. Other scenarios provided short term benefits but they didn’t last due to the uncertainty of ongoing outbreaks and shutdowns that are unpredictable. 

This was the report that said that if we continued restrictions until mid-July, then there was a strong chance of elimination, right? And showed that the economic outlook in 18 months was much better than if we didn't do so.

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Sugarplum Poobah
2 hours ago, Julie3Girls said:

So people is south west Sydney have been told to get tested and self isolate.  People are wanting to get tested - queues have been anything from 5-8 hours long.

so tonight, saw a Facebook update from a local politician, informing people of an issue being raised, regarding the huge number of Sydney people who have been turning up at the John Hunter hospital (in Newcastle, 2 hours from Sydney) for testing.   And I think it is highly unlikely they are simply turning around and driving straight back - at the very least I imagine they would be wanting to stop and eat. 

Seriously, while I commend people for wanting to get tested, who in their right mind thinks it’s a good idea to go to a regional area so far from home to get tested?

It's school holidays -- I'm guessing many of them were away from home when they realised they needed to get tested. So why wouldn't you go to the nearest hospital?

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can'tstayaway
1 minute ago, Zeppelina said:

This was the report that said that if we continued restrictions until mid-July, then there was a strong chance of elimination, right? And showed that the economic outlook in 18 months was much better than if we didn't do so.

Yup. 
 

I believe it was to continue restrictions til mid June and the economic benefit in 18months would be 50% better than lifting restrictions in May. 

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Zeppelina
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, can'tstayaway said:

Yup. 
 

I believe it was to continue restrictions til mid June and the economic benefit in 18months would be 50% better than lifting restrictions in May. 

Mid-June?? Wow. We could have done it. Seems even more doable in hindsight, particularly from my perspective in newly re-locked-down Melbourne.

Edited by Zeppelina
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Julie3Girls
14 minutes ago, Sugarplum Poobah said:

It's school holidays -- I'm guessing many of them were away from home when they realised they needed to get tested. So why wouldn't you go to the nearest hospital?

Some of them, maybe. But from what was reported, a lot of them had travelled from Sydney ..  regional hospital 2 hours away is NOT your nearest hospital.  Just quicker than the 5-8 hour wait at the testing sites in Sydney. They were telling staff this was their reason for being tested there.

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got my tinsel on
12 minutes ago, Julie3Girls said:

Some of them, maybe. But from what was reported, a lot of them had travelled from Sydney ..  regional hospital 2 hours away is NOT your nearest hospital.  Just quicker than the 5-8 hour wait at the testing sites in Sydney. They were telling staff this was their reason for being tested there.

and they must have by-passed quite a number of covid testing sites between Casula and John Hunter Hospital.

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can'tstayaway
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, XieXie said:

Here’s the article where the deputy Chief Medical Officer calls elimination a false hope, and even dangerous.  

https://www.theage.com.au/national/eliminating-covid-is-a-false-hope-but-aggressive-suppression-is-working-20200715-p55c8e.html

Interesting. 

I still think he is deliberately trying to confuse elimination and eradication because government policy is not elimination so part of his job is to explain why suppression is better. 

This is a quote from Coatsworth’s piece

Quote

In Australia, we will continue to strive for local elimination wherever possible.


This is from an article in the Australian:

Quote

“State premiers are being urged to reject an elimination strategy for coronavirus, with Scott Morrison and leading business groups warning the move would double unemployment and wreck the economy.

After Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said elimination was “worthy of consideration”, business leaders backed by the Morrison government demanded the states hold the line on Australia’s aggressive suppression strategy, arguing the nation had to learn to live with coronavirus while there was no vaccine.”

It sounds like Morrison is playing politics and using all the tools he can.  He’s also trying the scare tactics again with his “doubling unemployment” and “wrecking the economy” language.  It’s like when he tried to frighten the country with the threat of “you’ll be in lock down for 6 months or more” if we impose restrictions hogwash. 

Edited by can'tstayaway
Tried to fix quote but made it worse
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Meepy

Michelle Grattan is very eloquent and I think after the third or fourth lockdown, people will be calling for elimination desperately.    Particularly business people who won’t be able to survive with multiple shutdowns.  As usual, Scummo is not thinking about the future, it is all about getting things down in the quickest, cheapest way possible.
Students were discussing it today in class and much preferred elimination to going in and out of lockdown.  Very small sample I know but they are extremely concerned about their futures when they leave school.

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IamzFeralz
7 hours ago, XieXie said:

Here’s the article where the deputy Chief Medical Officer calls elimination a false hope, and even dangerous.  

https://www.theage.com.au/national/eliminating-covid-is-a-false-hope-but-aggressive-suppression-is-working-20200715-p55c8e.html

Interesting. 

I think he has a point. They have found with the SW Sydney cluster that people became infectious within just one day and the source case was a freight worker from Melbourne .  Imagine the quarantine debacle again in a country that had got rid of all its restrictions.  

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blimkybill
25 minutes ago, IamzFeralz said:

I think he has a point. They have found with the SW Sydney cluster that people became infectious within just one day and the source case was a freight worker from Melbourne .  Imagine the quarantine debacle again in a country that had got rid of all its restrictions.  

I agree. Elimination is of course very appealing. It's been pretty successful and nice to live with for the states and territories who actually achieved it (so far). But how would an elimination strategy have prevented the current situation in Victoria? With the majority of cases traced back to the quarantine breach, it still would have happened, wouldn't it?

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kim27
5 hours ago, Meepy said:

Michelle Grattan is very eloquent and I think after the third or fourth lockdown, people will be calling for elimination desperately.    Particularly business people who won’t be able to survive with multiple shutdowns.  As usual, Scummo is not thinking about the future, it is all about getting things down in the quickest, cheapest way possible.
Students were discussing it today in class and much preferred elimination to going in and out of lockdown.  Very small sample I know but they are extremely concerned about their futures when they leave school.

Even a poll on the A Current Affair Facebook site was overwhelmingly in favour of elimination 😯

Then there is the ‘but we’ll be cut off from the world’ argument. We can’t travel internationally with our suppression ‘aim for zero’ strategy. I mean we can’t even travel freely within our own country. Elimination allows us to open up the country again.

As one of the guest on 7.30 said last night ‘Melbourne is already in lockdown for 6 weeks anyway. Why don’t we use this as an opportunity for elimination’.

 

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